Prov's Postseason Predictions: 2022


Colton Provey
Tennessee Scouting Director

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The postseason is here with 1A-4A region semifinals to kick off this evening as the 128 team field will be cut in half as the sun rises on Tuesday Morning. I'm gonna stick my neck out and give my final eight teams that will venture to Murfreesboro for the Spring Fling. Given the format, anything can happen, so I don't want to discourage teams I don't select because any team can win on any given day. On top of the final eight, I'll give two wildcards teams that I think are very capable of making thru the week and also highlighting the toughest region matchups for the path to state. Let's dive in...

 

4A

Region 1/2

I'm going with two staples of consistency with Science Hill and Farragut. Both clubs made it to the final four last season with Science Hill bringing home the 3A title. The Toppers (33-5) have not wavered much this Spring and have a deep roster with experience and pitching depth. They'll have a great pitching matchup with Jefferson County tonight, so if they get thru this evening I think they have a great path. Farragut has continued to excel even with a younger roster this season as the dominated district four this season. I think they have the best chance to host Sectional and would be favored in any potential matchup for Friday. 

Region 3/4

I'm going with the two best clubs from Murfreesboro with Riverdale and Stewarts Creek. Riverdale has already won their region semifinals which will lock them into a sub-state appearance and if Stewarts Creek takes down a hot Rockvale club then the two will meet on Wednesday. Looking at the other side (districts 5/6), it's really hard to gauge where they're at. Both districts really beat up on each other with Coffee County clawing back to win the district tourney and Bradley Central/Walker Valley going three games to reach the championship. I think whoever emerges from that side will have a big arm to give them a good chance, but I think Stewarts Creek has been very consistent and Riverdale has really payed well in district and down the stretch. 

 

Region 5/6

These region matchups are gonna be very interesting as the clubs will be very familiar with each other as it should create some electric atmospheres. Ultimately, I'm gonna lean on Mt. Juliet and Hendersonville to emerge. Mt. Juliet probably has the deepest staff and have ran thru district 9 plus last year ended in a heart breaker at Clarksville. Hendersonville is just an older club with plenty of options on the mound. Not to discredit district 11/12 because I think you can make an argument for any of those four to make it to the Spring Fling, but it's just harder to predict who will come out of those matchups. I think both Summit and Brentwood have played very well down the stretch, while Ravenwood has a very deep lineup and Centennial is an extremely tough out tonight if Eli Lamb has his best stuff. I'm sticking with my picks but I would not be surprised to see two clubs from 11/12 advance. 

Region 7/8

They've been cemented in the top 5 all season long and that's bitter rivals Collierville and Houston. In my looks, I think Collierville has the edge on the mound, but I think Houston's lineup causes more problems for opponents. They both have 3-4 top end guys that can provide good starts and also close out games on the backend plus both were knocked out in sub-state last season. Outside of the potential 5th time these two will meet on Wednesday, I think the sub-state matchups will be very tough. Rossview and Clarksville would be the favorite to come out, and I'm not sure if anyone has played better than Rossview as of late. These four programs have all cracked the 4A top ten at some point plus Henry County currently sits at no. 23.

 

Wildcards

My two wildcards are Rossview and Summit because I think both are playing their best baseball at the right time. They have consistency and depth on the mound and the lineups have pumped out production. However, they'll have tough matchups in the region semifinals with Rossview going against Adam Roth (Samford Commit) and Summit vs Eli Lamb. Plus any sub-state matchup home or away will be a tight game to punch their ticket. 

 

Toughest Region Pairings: Regions 5/6 and 7/8. 

 

3A

Region 1/2: Tennessee & Carter

Two of the more consistent clubs from start to finish, but could be tricky with Tennessee possibly going on the road 2-3 games this week. I thought Carter had an impressive season last year, but unfortunately were sandwiched in the same district as the final two teams in 2A (Gibbs & Pigeon Forge). 

Region 3/4: Upperman & Tullahoma

I felt district 8 was one of the deeper leagues, where practically anyone could win it, but Tullahoma really played well in the tourney to capture the crown. The Bees have plenty of depth on the mound to take down anyone. The issue is if both these teams win tonight one will be on the road for Friday. Similar to 4A district 11/12, I think you can argue for any of the four from the other side. Lenoir City has been very consistent and East Hamilton played well in the district tourney, but very difficult to predict who will come out tonight. 

Region 5/6: Hardin County & Greenbrier

Both clubs reached the Spring Fling last year (Hardin County 3A runner up & Greenbrier in 2A). We've had Hardin County at no.1 all season and I think if they get thru Tyler Smith (S. Alabama Commit) tonight, they have a good chance of punching their ticket. Greenbrier has two big arms and a steady supporting cast offensively, so I think that makes for a tough out for anyone.  

Region 7/8: Munford & Covington

Both clubs battled it out this season and Munford has a better record, but Covington has played well down the stretch. Munford shouldn't have an easy matchup at Dyer Co tonight, but I think if they escape they'll have a good path. Covington will be at home on both nights and potentially sub-state as well plus they have postseason experience. 

Wildcards: South Gibson & Lenoir City

South Gibson is not any slouch (no. 3 in 3A) and I think we'll see them playing on Friday, but just some question marks on how they'll lay out the pitching and if Jack Brafa will be available on the mound. I expect them to be their on Friday and it could be a coin flip matchup to punch their ticket. Lenoir City comes in right behind South Gibson at no.4 in 3A, but Signal Mountain was a state tourney club last year then a sub state matchup with any opponent from the other side will be very challenging. Not much of a wild card for two teams in the top four, but just some muddier waters to navigate.

Toughest Region Pairings: Regions 3/4 & 5/6

 

2A

I'm not going too in-depth for these selections because honestly I think this was the hardest one to decide. I think the depth and uncertainty of 2A can be reflected in our rankings as we only had one team eliminated in the district tourneys from the top 15 plus we expanded this to 20 programs because there are a lot of teams worthy and capable of pushing into the state tournament. Couple of key matchups: #11 Chuckey Doak vs #14 Union County; #10 Marion County vs #13 Sweetwater; #7 Loretto vs #16 Fairview; #18 Waverly vs 9 Westview; #4 Milan vs #17 Stewart County. 

Region 1/2: Pigeon Forge & Loudon

Region 3/4: Watertown & Forrest

Region 5/6: Loretto & Milan

Region 7/8: Adamsville & Decatur Co-Riverside

Wildcards: Marion Co. & Westview

Toughest Region Pairing: Region 1/2 & 5/6

 

1A

Similar to 2A, I believe Eagleville has established themselves as the favorite heading into the tourney, but not info to go super in-depth. Key Matchups: #6 Sale Creek vs #12 South Pittsburg; #3 Gordonsville vs Jo Byrns; #10 Peabody vs #11 Dresden; 

Region 1/2: Univ. School-JC & Coalfield

Region 3/4: Sale Creek & East Robertson

Region 5/6: Eagleville & McKenzie

Region 7/8: Peabody & Bradford

Wildcards: Dresden & Gordonsville

Toughest Region Pairing: Region 1/2 & 3/4

 

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