Trackman Traits- Hitting: 2021 OF Mitchell Kelly (Webster Thomas)
January 7, 2021
Welcome to the hitting side of Trackman Traits. In this series we will spotlight one player each week who stood out during this 2020 season and take a deeper dive into their numbers and take a look at some that really stand out. Since the implementation of the Trackman technology to our showcases this summer we have been fortunate enough to have seen a great deal of talent come through the system. Today, we will be taking a look at the number fourteen outfielder in New York's 2021 class, Mitchell Kelly
Before we get started, we'll go over and define some of the terminology being used in the piece.
Exit Velocity- this one's pretty simple but this metric measures the speed of the ball off the bat, measured in miles per hour (MPH).
Distance- another simple one, this metric measures how far the ball traveled or would travel if it was not obstructed, measured in feet.
Launch Angle- measures the vertical angle of the ball as it leaves the bat. Positive numbers represent balls traveling upward off of the bat and negative numbers mean the ball is traveling downward off of the bat.
Fly Ball %- Percentage of fly balls hit during a given set of batted ball events. Trackman defines a fly ball as any batted ball with a launch angle between 25 degrees and 49.9 degrees.
Line Drive%- Percentage of line drives hit during a given set of batted ball events. Trackman defines a line drive as any batted ball with a launch angle between 10 degrees and 24.9 degrees.
Ground Ball %- Percentage of ground balls hit during a given set of batted ball events. Trackman defines a ground ball as any batted ball with a launch angle below 9.9 degrees.
Hard Hit%- Percentage of batted balls with an exit velocity of 90 MPH or higher.
Bat Speed- The speed of the sweet spot of the bat at impact, measured in MPH. The sweet spot is measured 6 inches from the tip of the bat. - Blast Motion
Hand Speed- The speed of the handle of the bat just before impact, measured in MPH. The handle us measured 6 inches from the knob of the bat. - Blast Motion
Rotational Acceleration- A measure of how quickly the hitter gets from launch position to being on plane. This is measured in G-Force (g). - Blast Motion
On Plane Efficiency %- A measure of the percentage of your swing that was on the swing plane. -Blast Motion
Mitchell Kelly
Class of 2021 / OF
Player Information
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Graduating Class: 2021
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Primary Position: OFSecondary Position: RHP
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High School: Webster ThomasState: NY
- Summer Team: Crimson Pride
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Height: 6-3Weight: 200lbs
- Bat/Throw: R/R
Statistics
Videos
(7/6/20)
Player News
- Trackman Traits- Hitting: 2021 OF Mitchell Kelly (Webster Thomas) - Jan 7, 2021
- Diamonds in the Rough: Week 3 Uncommitted Seniors - Dec 30, 2020
- Uncommitted Spotlight: 2021 OF/RHP Mitchell Kelly (Webster Thomas) - Nov 27, 2020
- Northeast Fall Classic: Day 3 Scout Blog - Sep 17, 2020
- Preseason All-State: Top OF Velocities - Feb 28, 2020
- High School Scout Blog: Week 6 - May 24, 2019
TRACKMAN DATA ANALYSIS
We got a chance to get our eyes and technology on Kelly this summer in Cortland at the 2020 NYS Games. Let's dig into the Trackman metrics.
Exit Speed: Kelly max exit velocity or exit speed was 92.11 MPH, putting him in the top 50% of players at the NYS Games. His average exit speed was 81.36 MPH, also putting him in the upper half of players in that category in the same event. While those numbers may not jump off the numbers as some of the features in the past, these numbers don't quite paint the whole picture of Mitchell Kelly.
Distance: This is where the numbers start to match up with some of the guys who have higher exit velocities than Kelly. His farthest hit ball traveled 353 ft, which placed him in the top 10% of all players at the event and his 277 ft average in this category was good for ninth in the entire event. How does he the ball as far as some others who are hitting the ball harder than him?
Line Drive % / Fly Ball %: As we've covered in the past, fly balls greatly benefit from increased exit velocity. With 50% fly balls during his BP round, he clearly squared some up as he was able to hit the ball further than most. He kept the ball off the ground 80% of the time as he also hit 30% line drives.
When Kelly is able to get up and over that 90 MPH exit velocity barrier, that's when hitting fly balls will benefit him. That 90 MPH exit velocity threshold is where fly balls start seeing greater success. While there are signs that point to greater consistency in getting above that 90 MPH mark that we will touch on later, his 81.36 average exit velocity is not as conducive to the fly ball approach. To demonstrate this, let's look at the Statcast Exit Velocity & Launch Angle Field Breakdown. This tool allows you to input any given combination of exit velocity and launch angle and it will generate a plot of all of the times that exact combination occurred in an MLB game and show the results of those specific batted ball events. We'll look at the combination of an 81 MPH exit velocity paired with a 30 degree launch angle, a pretty standard launch angle for a fly ball.
This is clearly not an ideal combination as it results in almost exclusively routine fly balls. That exact combination yielded just a .047 batting average, so there's not much success to be had from lifting the ball when that exit velocity is not high enough to benefit it. While hitting fly balls may not be the right approach, he did hit 30% line drives as well, so let's look at what could be expected when he hits line drives. We'll keep the exit velocity at 81 MPH and make the launch angle 15 degrees, a typical line drive.
Well, that plays. Clearly, the line drive approach makes a bit more sense in this case. While our fly ball combination just about never resulted in success, this line drive combination is just about always finding success. A .907 batting average isn't too shabby, and the 80% singles that were a result from this combination profiles well as a table-setter at the top of any lineup.
BLAST CONNECTION
Trackman does a great job showing the outcomes of players swings and their batted ball events. Its data is results based, the best numbers come when you get off your best swing and make your best contact. Blast Motion technology, also implemented at the same time this summer as the Trackman, tracks the swing data of a player and can shine a light into what a player does well in their swing. When paired with Trackman data, it can paint a more complete picture of a hitter and help explain why a player is able to hit the ball harder, farther, and more consistently than others.
As mentioned earlier, there are some signs that point to Kelly becoming a guy who can start hitting the ball harder more consistently. The Blast numbers all check out for Kelly, he is above average in just about every category including his hand speed (max 23.5 MPH) and his rotational acceleration (max 21.1 G's). His bat speed is also solid at a max of 72.2 mph. All these numbers check out to me, but the one number that sticks out to me the most is his on plane efficiency %. Typically, being above 70% in this metric is considered ideal and Kelly checked in at 84%. Like rotational acceleration, players with higher on plane efficiency percentages are better equipped to make adjustments during their swing.
CONCLUSION
All these numbers to me show that there is some perhaps hidden value in Kelly that takes the deeper dive to uncover. While he might not stick out as much as the guys who have the flashy triple-digit exit velocities, there are signs that Kelly still has another level he hasn't already reached. We will have our eyes on Mitchell Kelly as we enter the 2021 season.
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UPCOMING EVENTS