Over the past five years right handed pitchers have been the most-often drafted of all college prospects in the first round. Division I college baseball has produced 22 of this draft demographic.

2023: Paul Skenes (LSU), 1st overall. Rhett Lowder (Wake Forest), 7th. Chase Dollander (Tennessee), 9th. Hurston Waldrep (Florida), 24th.

2022: Cade Horton (Oklahoma), 7th. Gabe Hughes (Gonzaga), 10th.

2021: Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt), 2nd. Sam Bachman (Miami, OH), 9th. Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt), 10th. Will Bednar (Mississippi State), 14th. Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara), 18th. Gunnar Hogland (Mississippi), 19th. Gavin Williams (East Carolina), 23rd. Ryan Cusick (Wake Forest), 24th.

2020: Max Meyer (Minnesota), 3rd. Emerson Hancock (Georgia), 6th. Bryce Jarvis (Duke), 18th. Cade Cavalli (Oklahoma), 22nd. Bobby Miller (Louisville), 29th.

2019: Alek Manoah (West Virginia), 11th. George Kirby (Elon), 20th. Ryan Jensen (Fresno State), 27th. 

The high water mark was 2021 when eight of the top 24 overall picks were college right-handers. However, to date that class has not lived up to the hype with just two – Bachman and Williams – producing a positive WAR to date. And both are currently back down in the minor leagues this season.

So far the class of 2019 has seen the highest returns with Manoah (7.4 WAR) and Kirby (6.4) setting the pace.

It’s much too early to grade the 4.5-star (out of 5) 2023 class, but Skenes and Waldrep have already reached The Show and both Lowder and Dollander are carving up High-A.

The 2024 college draft class has three for sure first-rounders and one other who has an outside chance to be chosen within the top 30 picks. Overall, it’s a 3-star year for college right-handers.

2024 Top Ten:

1. Chase Burns, Wake Forest- One of only six pitchers in Division I baseball this season who boasts three different pitches that grade in the 90th percentile for Whiff rate (total swings / total swing & miss), Burns consistently pumps his heater up to 100 mph with high spin efficiency for loads of swing/miss (100th percentile Whiff rate of 35.7%) up in the zone. His best pitch is a power slider that has missed bats to the tune of a .086 opponent’s batting average and a 100th percentile Whiff rate of 64.1%. It’s also a pitch that he landed for a strike 70% of the time this spring. His third pitch, a low-80s curveball, is also a bat misser with a 99th percentile whiff rate of 56.8%. All of this adds up to Burns becoming the first college pitcher off the board, most likely within the top five overall picks.

2. Trey Yesavage, East Carolina- After missing a start during the American Athletic Conference tourney with a partially collapsed lung, Yesavage returned for regionals and dominated Wake Forest over 7.1 innings and 112 pitches. His fastball touches 97 and lives in the 93-94 mph range, but his bread-n-butter is an elite slider. It’s an 86-87 mph late-action breaker that’s nearly unhittable (99th percentile whiff rate of 57.6%). His third pitch changeup is nearly as good as the other two. He throws it 15.6% of the time and it produces a 98th percentile / 55.5% whiff rate. With three pro-ready weapons at his disposal, Yesavage finished the season 11-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 93.1 innings pitched. He’s likely to be selected in the middle of the first round.

3. Brody Brecht, Iowa- A projected top ten overall pick coming into this season, it took the power right-hander several weeks to get things rolling. But, once he did, Brecht showed improvement, lowering his walk rate, while raising his strikeout rate from the 2023 season. He consistently touches 100+ with his fastball, but his upper-80s slider is his difference maker and most frequent offering with a 48.6% use rate. It’s a double-plus offering that dips under bats. Its 56.5% Whiff rate ranks in the 99th percentile (D1 average for sliders is 33.1%). Even more impressive was the improvement made to his split. During Opening Weekend of the Scouting Trail, his splitty was a for-show-only offering, but by Week 13 it played as an above-average pitch. Like his slider, his split resides in a strong tier with a 45.6% Whiff rate (87th percentile). The greatest concern for Brecht is his control, specifically his fastball control that has a 57.2% strike rate (16th percentile) and the strike percentage of all his pitches combined is 59.4% (37th percentile). Regardless of this lack of accuracy, Brecht’s “stuff” is just too loud. The latest projections have Brecht being selected somewhere around the 20th overall pick.

4. Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State- The switch-pitcher touches 98 from the right side and the low-90s from the left which is his natural side. From both sides he pitches with a loose, three-quarter release point and good angle. His right handed slider creates some swing/miss at 87-88 with 2500 rpm spin, while his left handed version spins quicker (2600s) and is more of a sweeper in the low-80s. From the right side his firm, upper-80s changeup shows a tick above at times with some late fade. At the pro level, Cijntje profiles as a starter from the right side with three solid offerings, and a reliever from the left with a two-pitch mix. The draft-eligible sophomore took a big step forward from last spring when he walked 34 in 50 innings. He finished this season 8-2 with a 3.67 ERA and 113 strikeouts against 30 walks in 90.2 innings. While his frame (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) might bring some question marks for the next level, his athleticism and two-handed arsenal give him late first round consideration.

-- A Day One prospect as both an outfielder and pitcher, Carson Benge (Oklahoma State) would land in this area as a pitcher only. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, but it’s his dominating breaking pitches that have the greatest present value on the mound. He finished the season 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 35 innings. Benge is most likely to be selected in the first round as an outfielder where he will be developed and his pitching likely put on the shelf for the short term.

5. Luke Holman, LSU- Holman solidified his status as a top 40 overall pick with 12.2 innings and 18 strikeouts in the postseason. He finished the season with 127 strikeouts in 91.2 innings and held opponents to just a .174 batting average. The Tigers’ ace is a high pitch ability righthander, the type that moves quickly through minors to AAA. One thing for certain is that Holman has the type of polished delivery with a consistent release point that has a high likelihood to develop plus-plus command at the Major League level and enable him to pitch for a long time in the big leagues. His fastball peaked at 95 this spring, but he showed more in the tank last summer while a member of the USA CNT. His No. 1 also plays as multiple pitches with his ability to spot on both edges of the plate (mostly gloveside), and also elevate to the letters on occasion. However, he’s typically an east/west navigator with his fastball, while mixing three shapes of the same breaking ball – a slow 75 mph get-me-over that he uses to steal strikes early in the count, a firmer 79-81 even-count bender that gets some swing/miss, and a slider-shaped offering at 82-84 that he mainly uses with two strikes for chase and put away. Of the three his slider is his main weapon. For the season it has produced a 48.3% Whiff rate, which ranks in the 93rd percentile of college baseball this season (per 6-4-3 Charts). Ironically, Holman is the pitcher that scouts love to watch pitch (establishes his fastball, works quickly, throws strikes), but he’s also the type of college pitcher whose value gets suppressed in the draft due to the lack of big velo or a super-dominant pitch. His performance statistics will push him up boards, while his pitch analytics may drop him back down. Holman will likely be considered starting in the Competitive Balance Round A (around pick No. 35).

6. Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist- Always a strike-thrower with a big arm, the 6-foot-6 righthander is the ONLY pitcher in the country who is a part of both the Heat Sheet and Control Artists 1.0. Regardless of a delivery that traditionally projects to the bullpen at the pro level, his combination of control and velo typically places a pitching prospect in strong consideration for the top 40 overall picks. Johnson posted every weekend of the season, finishing 11-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 151 strikeouts against just 14 walks in 106 innings. For a full scouting report, please see the Scouting Trail: Week Six where I caught up with Johnson on the road against Sam Houston State.

7. Ryan Forcucci, UC San Diego- Sidelined by an arm injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery after just five weeks into the 2024 college season, the power right-hander is still expected to be selected on Day One. When healthy, the 6-foot-3 right-hander attacks with a mid-90s fastball up in the zone and complements with mid-80s slider as his primary offspeed pitch and a better than average curveball. His heater boasts a 98th percentile Whiff rate of 31.2% and his curve rates in the 99th percentile at 57.1%. Forcucci finished the season with a 2.16 ERA in 25 innings, striking out 37 against just six walks. He also held opponents to just a .159 batting average.

8. Chris Cortez, Texas A&M- The Aggie right-hander shows similar stuff to Brecht with a power slider that goes invisible at times (98th percentile / 55.8% whiff rate), and a swing/miss heater that he can repeatedly push into triple digits. Cortez’ draft value gained steam throughout the season and then further elevated on the big stage of the postseason, culminating in his Super Regional relief appearance and then 4.1 innings of shutout baseball against Tennessee during game two of the championship series. He’s always had big stuff, but Cortez’ questions weren’t about a 100 mph fastball or elite slider action, they were about consistency and walk rate. He answered the bell on both, cutting his walk rate to 13.3% from 18.7% en route to a 10-3, 2.78 ERA, 37 BB, 102 SO in 64.2 innings this spring. As a two pitch power arm, Cortez profiles best to the bullpen, but he’s also shown the ability to start at the college level and will likely begin his pro career in that capacity.

9. Aiden May, Oregon State- The 6-foot-2 right-hander fills the strike zone with 94-96 mph heaters that spin in an elite range of 2500-2600 rpm with sink at the bottom of the zone. His slider is his primary offering that he threw 45.8% of the time this year and it’s just plain dirty. It’s an 84-87 mph super tight spinner (2900-3000 rpm) that plays consistently as plus and will show plus-plus throughout any given game. His third pitch, a firm upper-80s changeup, is also very effective. It generated an 85th percentile, 45.8% Whiff rate this season. When it’s all combined, May projects as a well-rounded, middle-of-the-rotation starting pitching prospect on a MLB staff. He’s likely to be chosen late in the second round.

10. Bryce Cunningham, Vanderbilt- It’s a close call for the final spot on this top ten with Drew Beam and Ben Hess as the two primary competitors, but Cunningham grades out on top for me due to his long-term projection. Similar to former Vandy hitter Spencer Jones, Cunningham is seen as another Dore who's just scratching the surface of his potential. The 6-foot-5 right-hander finished this season with a record of 7-4 and a 4.36 ERA. He struck out 96 in 84.2 innings while holding opponents to a .217 batting average. His primary weapons are a 93-98 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a slider that presently flashes average. It’s a high-spinning (2400 rpm) power changeup with up to 25” (average 21-22”) of late horizontal action to his armside and a swing/miss weapon that sports a 52.6% Whiff rate (96th percentile) this season. Overall, Cunningham made improvements to his arsenal and control this season, as well as leaning up physically and gaining needed durability. He will likely be selected in the second round and many scouts project him as a future mid-rotation starter.

High Honors:  Drew Beam (Tennessee), Ben Hess (Alabama), Tyson Neighbors (Kansas State), Khal Stephen (Mississippi State)

Honors:  Matt Ager (UC Santa Barbara), Charlie Beilenson (Duke), Greysen Carter (Vanderbilt), Nate Dohm (Mississippi State), Daniel Eagen (Presbyterian), Connor Foley (Indiana), Luke Hayden (Indiana State), Brian Holiday (Oklahoma State), Bridger Holmes (Oregon State), Thatcher Hurd (LSU), Luke Jewett (UCLA), LeBarron Johnson, Jr. (Texas), Jacob Kmatz (Oregon State), Nate Knowles (William & Mary), L.P. Langevin (Louisiana), Michael Massey (Wake Forest), Josh Randall (San Diego), Brady Tygart (Arkansas), Jackson Wentworth (Kansas State), Jay Woolfolk (Virginia), Gage Ziehl (Miami, Fla.)