Today, we're examining how the 2026 MLB Draft broke down this year with fewer prep players selected overall as the NIL and the four-year college development path continues to trend as the most-trusted path by decision-makers on Draft Day.

FROM A DISTANCE

After 42 high school players came off the board on Day One, the prep market slowed considerably through rounds five to 10, with just 15 additional selections. That left the total at 57 high school draftees through the first 10 rounds and it set the stage for one of the draft's most predictable developments: an aggressive run on upside prep talent once Day Two gave way to the bonus-friendly rounds.

Rounds 11 and 12, in particular, were flooded with high-ceiling high school prospects, especially on the mound. The wave of prep pitching is certain to keep college coaching staffs on edge as the signing deadline approaches at 5 p.m. ET on July 27. Among the top-five available prep shortstops entering Day Two, only Dylan Bowen (Hanover Central HS, IN; Reds, pick No. 105, fifth round) heard his name called before the 11th round. None of the top-five catchers, outfielders, or utility players were selected that early, either. The story was even more pronounced on the pitching side, where RHP Savion Sims (Prestonwood Christian HS, TX; Guardians, pick No. 213, seventh round) stood alone as the only one of the top-10 prep right-handers to be drafted before round 11. But things did get interesting once the 11th round did finally kick off:

Top-150 Recruits, 11th Round:

+ Pick #314, Rockies: RHP Gavin Swartz (IL; Indiana recruit), No. 127 rank
+ Pick #315, White Sox: RHP Kyle Casteel (PA; West Virginia), No. 56 rank
+ Pick #322, Braves: 3B Ryne Barker (AZ; Texas Tech recruit), No. 61 rank
+ Pick #323, Rays: RHP Logan Georges (CA; TCU), No. 64 rank
+ Pick #326, D-backs: 1B Cody Boshell (FL; Tennessee), No.139 rank
+ Pick #336, Tigers: 1B Will Adams (AL; LSU), No. 109 rank

If there was one overarching theme that defined this year's draft, it was the continued industry-wide emphasis on bat-to-ball ability and quality of contact. While the 2026 prep class lacked the top-end star power and overall depth of last year's group, evaluators still found plenty of impact talent throughout the board. Several organizations leaned heavily into the high school demographic, with clubs like the Braves, Royals, Rays, and Rangers making it a clear priority despite the inherent signing challenges that accompany the class.

Regarding the breakdown of demographics when all 20 rounds concluded, of the 613 total picks, 474 (77.3%) came from four-year colleges. Prep players represented 20.7 percent of the total picks, while JUCOs held just 2.0 percent. A potential trend to watch for is the decreasing prep percentage of draft, tied to a “perfect storm” of increasing NIL support mixed with an overall class that was at least a full tier (talent wise) below 2025. Present forecasts from Prep Baseball anticipate this reverting to usual form in ‘27.

Meanwhile, the SEC led all conferences, expectedly, with 70 picks during Day Two for a total of 104 in the 20 rounds. The ACC was second with 49 on Day Two and 68 total; Big XII had 56 total (40 on Day Two); Big Ten had 46 total (35); Big West had 23 total (21); and C-USA had 22 total (20). All other Division-I conferences combined for 142 total selections.

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TEAM’S TOP DRAFT HAULS

Shooter Hunt: The White Sox, Cardinals, and Rays all had massive bonus pools with plenty of picks, and I felt that they all turned in dominant performances. Even the White Sox grabbing a semi-sleeper premium prep arm, RHP Kyle Casteel (Butler HS, PA) in the 11th only served to amplify the huge haul. The Rays were the buzz of every other team that I talked to, and for good reason: the club grabbed two potential stars at the top in Grady Emerson and Taj Marchand before returning to what its player development does best: pitching, as 17 of the final 19 picks were arms. Ultimately, I continue to side with the direction that the Giants went. While the industry aggressively pursued bat-to-ball specialists in a draft that was considerably down from the previous year, San Francisco elected to spend the third highest bonus pool on three premium arms (Flora-Bolemon-Waechter), which, when forecasting for the depth of ‘27s hugely talented position players, might be an excellent decision in the long run.

David Seifert: The Athletics' selections were strong up and down with a nice balance of present performance, tools and projection. The White Sox also stood out to me with Braden Holcomb (Vanderbilt) in the 12th round as a standout pick on day two. They also grabbed Cam Johnson (Oklahoma) in the 15th. He’s obviously not a strike-thrower, that’s the reason he slid, but he does have a lively fastball and a big arm. Who knows what the CWS PD can tweak out of him. I also loved the Rockies day one haul of Tyler Bell (Kentucky), Daniel Jackson (Georgia), Logan Reddeman (UCLA), Jackson Natili (Cincinnati) and Ben Davis (Mississippi State). On day two they proceeded to add a high ceiling prep arm in Tyler Putnam (Battle HS, MO) and stole future big leaguer Hudson Barrett (Oklahoma State) in the 8th. If the Astros are able to sign their total haul which included late-round preps like 13th-rounder Jack Beck (Columbia Central HS, TN; brother of Jordan, Tennessee, 2019) and James Tronstein (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA) in the 15th, look out. It could be a once every five year, five-star type of class. The Royals’ three picks in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds stood out for me: Ethan McElvain (Vanderbilt), Justin LeGuernic (Clemson), Dylan Vigue (Georgia). Each could move quickly and impact a big league bullpen. Like Kansas City, the Twins also looked sneaky good with college arms early in day two. Leading off with Steele Murdock (UC San Diego; fifth round), they also called the names of slider specialist Max Bayles (Santa Clara; seventh round) and the power heat of Thomas Burns (Texas; eighth round). I wasn’t so sure about what to make of the Phillies after day one, but they rebounded spectacularly in Day Two with Will Gasparino (UCLA; fifth round), Macon Winslow (North Carolina; sixth round), Bo Rhudy (Tennessee; seventh round) and stole an under the radar bat with Brayden Bakes (Illinois State; 13th round) to name a few of their many strong Day Two picks. The Giants crushed it on Day One, then led off day two with Luke Nixon (NC State) in the fifth, followed by an arm I really like with Cody Brasch (Louisiana-Lafayette) in the eighth and high level performer Ian Korn (West Virginia) in the 10th, lefty strike-thrower Colin Fisher (Arkansas) in the 13th and JP Robertson (Ole Miss) in the final round. The Rays crushed it on day one with two exciting prep shortstops and then went big arm hunting on Day Two. They bagged some good ones with Kyle Johnson (Virginia), Tate McKee (Georgia Tech), Cole Stokes (Florida State), Mason Bixby (Oklahoma) and Alex Philpott (South Carolina), as well as relying on their area scouts for the selections of three high potential preps in the seventh, eighth, and ninth rounds that included AJ Rice (Pickens County HS, GA), Griffin Long (Sonoraville HS, GA) and Tai Jones (Jackson Academy HS, MS).

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Recruiting Class Winners

• Tennessee
• Vanderbilt
• Kentucky
• Oregon State
• Mississippi State
• LSU
• Oklahoma State

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Top Position Players Headed to School

1. C Sean Dunlap (Crown Point HS, IN; Tennessee)
2. OF Blake Bowen (JSerra Catholic HS, CA; Oregon State)
3. 3B/SS Archer Horn (St. Ignatius Prep HS, CA; Stanford)
4. RHP/INF Cole Koeninger (Keller HS, TX; Tennessee)
5. OF James Tronstein (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA; Vanderbilt)
6. SS James Clark (St. John Bosco HS, CA; Duke)
7. SS Ethan Bass (Glenbrook North HS, IL; Wake Forest)
8. OF/1B Dominic Santarelli (St. Joseph Catholic HS, WI; LSU)
9. OF Noah Wilson (McCallie HS, TN; Vanderbilt)
10. OF/LHP Lucas Nawrocki (Aledo HS, TX; LSU)

Top Right-Handed Pitchers

1. RHP/INF Cole Koeninger (Keller HS, TX; Tennessee)
2. RHP Joseph Contreras (Blessed Trinity HS, GA; Vanderbilt)
3. RHP Grayson Willoughby (Trinity HS, KY; Kentucky)
4. RHP Landon Brown (Iowa Colony HS, TX; Mississippi State)
5. RHP Matt Ponatoski (Archbishop Moeller HS, OH; Kentucky)
6. RHP Jake Carbaugh (Plant City HS, FL; Mississippi State)
7. RHP Gannon Grant (Center Grove HS, IN; Tennessee)
8. RHP Hudson Devaughn (Mooresville HS, IN; Alabama)
9. RHP James Jorgensen (Jesuit Prep HS, TX; Texas)
10. RHP Denton Lord (South Walton HS, FL; Mississippi State)
11. RHP Trey Rangel (The Colony HS, TX; Texas)
12. RHP Matthew Sharman (Etowah HS, GA; Georgia)

Top Left-Handed Pitchers

1. LHP Bo Holloway (Christ Presbyterian HS, TN; Vanderbilt)
2. LHP/OF Lucas Nawrocki (Aledo HS, TX; LSU)
3. LHP Bryce Krenek (Katy Taylor HS, TX; Texas)
4. LHP RJ Cope (Georgia Premier Academy, GA; Vanderbilt)
5. LHP Sean Loggie (Christian Brothers HS, NJ; Virginia)
6. LHP Connor Finn (Mahtomedi HS, MN; Texas Tech)
7. LHP Trystan Newberry (Russellville HS, AR; Arkansas)
8. LHP Tyner Flynt (Presbyterian Christian HS, MS; Troy)
9. LHP Hunter Rose (Pleasant Grove HS, AR; uncommitted)
10. LHP Isaiah James (South Central HS, NC; Duke)

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