MLB Draft Primer: Risk/Reward Recruiting Classes

July 7, 2026
By Shooter Hunt
Vice President, Scouting

Every year, the MLB Draft redraws the recruiting landscape across college baseball, not just MLB orgs and their farm systems.

For the top collegiate conference in baseball, the SEC keeps stacking elite recruiting classes and it's become as much about navigating draft risk as it is identifying talent. Landing a handful of top-100 prospects is one thing, actually getting enough of them to campus is an entirely different challenge. It's often the difference between a class that's merely good and one that changes the trajectory of a program.

This exercise is about finding the classes that appear to have a chance of surviving draft weekend with impact talent inbound.

One important note before diving in: This piece is done under the guise that a fair amount of the Prep Baseball top-30 players in the class will ultimately sign professional contracts. The past four years have seen just four-to-six players in the top-30 ultimately opt for college, a reminder that elite prep talent overwhelmingly follows the professional route when draft position and bonus opportunities align.

That reality forces programs to build classes with layers. The five classes below have enough insulation to weather the inevitable draft hits while still projecting as difference-makers once players arrive on campus. Many of the players discussed below are legitimate 50/50 draft follows, with a real chance to make it to campus if the bonus number isn't met.

Biggest Risk 🎰 / Reward 💰 Programs:

1. Vanderbilt

Coach Corbin and his staff put together another excellent recruiting class that includes 12 top-100 prospects (15 top-150) on Prep Baseball’s class rankings. Yes, OF EJ Booth (MS) and SS Aiden Ruiz (NY) are likely first-rounders, but there is a big group of impact players that are sure to have a big decision to make. At the top, SS James Tronstein (CA) and OF Noah Wilson (TN) are future first round talents whose tools are ultra alluring. Tronstein would immediately step into a significant role for the Commodores and Wilson’s monster five-tool profile would have an equal opportunity as a future top-15 pick. Yes, there is huge risk, but there is also a nearly equal opportunity that they get to campus. LHP Sean Duncan (CAN) appeared destined for the first round, but after going down with Tommy John, his slam dunk status is less defined. He, along with the No. 6-ranked right-hander in the class, RHP Joseph Contreras (GA), still project as immediate professionals. The keys to this class laying a sturdy foundation for future Commodore success is mainly tied to Tronstein and Wilson, but another group of coin-flip campus-goers, SS Keon Johnson (GA), LHP Bo Holloway (TN), 3B Gunner Skelton (TN), 1B Collin Bland (TN), and ATH Luke Williams (PA) are set to have Nashville sweating out the two-day draft. In a less heralded prep shortstop class, Johnson’s dynamic upside is sure to be tempting as will Willaims’, who features explosive athleticism and impact. Bland’s profile a slugging first baseman is difficult to run up boards as prepster, so there is some hope that he might be a mainstay in the middle of the ‘Dores lineup for three years. The keys in this group come in the form of Holloway, a triple-digit wielding southpaw, and Skelton, an impact bat who is already tearing up college pitching in the Appy League.

2. LSU

No school or coach has shown the ability to get the highest level recruits to campus like LSU and head coach, Jay Johnson. First rounders have spurned professional baseball to don the purple and gold in Alex Box Stadium, and many have also succeeded in elevating just how high that first round status can rise. This year’s recruiting class currently features 10 top-100 prospects. At the top is the most polarizing prep player in the class: LHP Logan Schmidt (CA). After classing up from ‘27, Schmidt immediately entered the first round conversation thanks to a sturdy, 6-foot-4 frame, upper-90s fastball, and general assured starter potential. In a class that is stocked with elite southpaws, however, the SoCal native’s spring left more questions than answers in the hopes of cementing a first round selection. Could that get him to Baton Rouge? Stepping onto campus under the tutelage of Nate Yeskie, Schmidt would immediately carry the potential of blossoming into a top-10 selection for ‘29. The same can be said for RHP Jensen Hirschkorn (CA). While most signs tend to point towards an early selection this year, there is still a chance. The key to this class comes more in the form of the position players that might make it to campus. Whereas many schools are dependent on the decision of a single player, LSU carries commitments from three of the top-10 outfielders in the class along with the preeminent power threat, Dominic Santarelli (WI). OF Nate Davis (FL) has already removed his name from the draft, and should just one of OF Lucas Nawrocki (TX), OF Anthony Murphy (CA), or OF Malachi Washington (GA) join him, a sturdy foundation has been set for an exciting crop of position players. Santarelli feels destined for an earlier Day One selection, and Tiger fans will also want to follow 3B Luke Tucker (TX) throughout Day One. Finally, grabbing just one of the talented upside arms of RHP Coleton Brady (FL), LHP Spencer Evans (FL), or RHP Cooper Sides (CA) would also deliver a future weekend starter. In short, there is significant risk (as always) to this LSU recruiting class, but perhaps even more opportunity to land a strong core.

3. Arkansas

While the Hogs feature less of the “highest end” risks, the prospects that they have committed hang in the threshold of late Day One to early Day Two, and the importance of getting those types of talents to campus are immeasurable. Inevitably, each draft year sees a slew of southpaws opt for professional contracts, but in doing so, gives way to the future impact left-handed arms at the collegiate level. In talented LHPs Trystan Newberry (AR) and Hunter Rose (TX), the Razorbacks, and pitching coach Matt Hobbs, have the opportunity to elevate draft stock in similar form to Hunter Dietz. Similarly, on the position side, top-100 recruits, OF Jorvorskie Lane (TX), C Max Holland (AR), and SS Spencer Browning (TX) would have strong cases for impacting the college game before heading off into professional baseball.

4. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs hold onto the most unique class in the country including 6 in the top 100. A pair of up-classed ‘27 prospects, No. 24-ranked C Will Brick (TN) and No. 38 SS Rocco Maniscalco (AL) feel destined for Day One contracts, but Starkville is growing a quick reputation as a destination spot for high-level prepsters (e.g. ‘25s Jack Bauer and Jacob Parker). Regardless of whether the pair of young phenoms make it to campus, the quad-set of potential frontline right-handed arms, No. 49 Landon Brown, No. 56 Jake Carbaugh, No. 71 Denton Lord, and No. 80 Wilson Andersen are the ones to watch closest. Each tallied strong springs with massive, Friday night upside, and while they will almost assuredly each be drafted, even just one making his way to campus would be a big win for Coach O’Connor & Co.

5. Oklahoma

The National Champs are riding high and could potentially maintain that lofty feeling after the Draft finishes. Flame-throwing, triple-digit right-hander, No. 45-ranked RHP Savion Sims (TX), is sure to be a priority for many clubs, but should he wish to develop into a potential top-10 pick under Skip Johnson’s tutelage, he would reach Norman with the foundation of potentially doing so. Still more, No. 76 3B Anthony Del Angel (NM) is the sleeper star of the ‘26 class who, if he’s not quietly sitting high certain clubs’ boards, carries the type of profile that explodes in the SEC. Finally, while No. 83 SS/OF Jason Amalbert (NJ) feels more signable, No. 197 C Jack Brenner (WI) has the type of athleticism and hit-tool that shines in the SEC before catapulting draft stock over three years.