2027 College Pitching Class

Continuing our data dig into the pitching lane, we fine-sliced the near endless pitching data from the 2026 spring season as the top data darlings were narrowed down to a total of 47 pitchers who scored >115 Stuff+ AND >100 Location+. From there, rather than relying solely on raw pitch shape (Stuff+) or command (Location+), we refined it with a blend of the full spectrum of metrics that include:

Expected Run Prevention & Value (xRV+): The premier summary metric that measures run-prevention value per pitch relative to the league average (100).
Pitch Quality & Command (Stuff+ & Location+): Baseline arsenal quality and strike-zone execution.
Missed Bats & Plate Discipline (Whiff% & Chase%): Ability to generate swings out of the zone and swing-and-miss within the zone (Z-Contact%).
Contact Quality Suppression (Barrel%, HH%, EV, and xwOBA): Minimizing hard contact, exit velocity, and extra-base threat when balls are put in play.
Workload & Durability (Pitches): Maintaining elite metrics over 700 to 1500+ pitches against high-level competition.

For a greater explanation of these metrics, take a look at this 6-4-3 charts primer. 

While the top six pitchers are no surprise to both traditional in-the-field scouts and office scouts, the usefulness of analytics identifying talent begins its course at No. 7 and then again at No. 10 with two high-end relievers.

Dax Whitney, RHP, Oregon State
Why He’s #1: Whitney leads the entire dataset in xRV+ (132) and lowest xwOBA (.258) while generating an elite 43.9% Whiff%. He combines a top-three raw stuff grade (131 Stuff+) with near-plus command (109 Location+), surrenders almost no hard contact (84.9 mph avg EV, 3.5% barrel rate, 43.9 Whiff%), and holds hitters to a 66.9% in-zone contact rate. He’s currently recovering from elbow season that will likely shelve him the entire 2027 spring season, but he’s still the Undisputed Ace of the 2027 college pitching class.

Jackson Barberi, RHP, Florida
Why He’s #2: Barberi features the highest pure Stuff+ in the dataset (135) paired with plus command (110 Location+). Opposing hitters managed just a .165 batting average against him, backed by a strong 126 xRV+ and limited hard impact. Barberi represents the Future Ace with the top ceiling and raw stuff of any pitcher in the 2027 college class.

Tomas Valincius, LHP, Mississippi State
Why He’s #3: Valincius is the highest-rated left-hander on the board. Over a 1480-pitch workload, he posted the #1 Location+ score (115) in the entire dataset while maintaining a 124 Stuff+. His blend of strike-throwing precision, durability, and bat-missing ability makes him a Frontline Starter, and a lower risk one at that.

Sean Jenkins, RHP, East Carolina
Why He’s #4: Jenkins holds the #2 xRV+ (131) in the dataset. He controls at-bats by inducing chases outside the zone at a 36.2% clip and almost completely nullifies barrels (only two barrels allowed on 95 batted balls and a 84.2 mph avg EV). His Stuff+ grades a 124 and Location+ 110. In short, he was elite at contact suppression and run prevention as a 18/19 year-old sophomore reliever last season. Sidenote: Jenkins will enter the spring as one of the youngest prospects eligible in the 2027 four-year college class, turning 20 years of age in mid-April.

Will Sanford, RHP, Oregon
Why He’s #5: Sanford is one of two pitchers in the dataset with a 134 Stuff+ score, and he maintained that grade across 1376 pitches. He held opponents to a .199 batting average, generated a 30.8% whiff rate, and posted 110 grades in both Tunnel+ and PredMovDiff+, indicating elite pitch deception and movement differentials.

Chris Levonas, RHP, Wake Forest
Why He’s #6: Levonas missed bats at an extraordinary rate over 1158 pitches, registering a 43.1% Whiff% and holding opponents to a meager .172 BA (.207 xBA) with a 125 Stuff+. When hitters did make contact, it tended to be elevated, but his ability to avoid contact altogether keeps him in the top tier of 2027 eligible arms.

And here’s where the analytics models begin to differ with the scouts’ eyes. Most scouts would prefer co-ace of the Mississippi State pitching staff, Ryan McPherson. Instead, the data is the driver and we continue our dig.

Jaxon Shineflew, LHP, Mississippi State
Why He’s #7: A soft contact and deceptive bullpen specialist for South Alabama last season, the left-hander averaged just 89.7 mph on a fastball that he threw 55% of the time, and over 75% of that time for strikes. Shineflew generated the lowest average exit velocity in the entire dataset (82.4 mph) and a microscopic 25.0% hard-hit rate. 120 Stuff+ and 106 Location+ combined with a 36.0% chase rate and a 35.4% whiff rate, hitters neither squared him up nor laid off his secondary offerings. A fourth-year junior, Shineflew will most likely not be selected in the same neighborhood as those above and below him on this list, but he’s for sure a name to watch as a potential helium riser this upcoming spring.

Camden Clark, RHP, Southern Miss
Why He’s #8: Clark induced swings at the highest rate in the dataset (55.5% Swing%), driven by a 36.9% Chase%. His 124 Stuff+ and 36.3% whiff rate kept hitters constantly defensive, resulting in a stingy .271 xwOBA. There’s certainly some risk here in the future as more advanced hitters come to the plate with better plans resulting in less chase, but there’s little doubt Clark has performed at a high level with plus stuff and better than average command (103 Location+). 

Grant Govel, RHP, USC
Why He’s #9: A workhorse, Govel threw the most pitches of any qualified arm (1,511). Despite absorbing the highest volume, he posted a 126 xRV+, 109 Location+, and limited opponents to a .203 BA and .260 wOBA, proving that his stuff (117) and command (109) hold firm deep into games and seasons.

Tanner Bradley, RHP, Oregon
Why He’s #10: Bradley was virtually unhittable on the field, posting the #1 lowest BA (.128) and #1 lowest wOBA (.217) across 744 pitches. Backed by an 84.1 mph average exit velocity and a 39.3% whiff rate, he edges out several higher-stuff arms through exceptional execution and run prevention. 115 Stuff+, 102 Location+

JUST MISSED:

Ryan McPherson, RHP, Mississippi State- McPherson possesses the most complete profile of the next three, combining high-end Whiff capabilities with plenty of Stuff+ (120) and above average command (107 Location+)

Wylan Moss, RHP, UCLA- Moss leads this group with a .193 average against and dominates in the zone with a Z-Contact of just 74.1%. 121 Stuff+, 105 Location+

Maddox McDougall, RHP, Florida- The most stable of anyone in the 47-pitcher dataset, he possesses both 119 Stuff+ and 110 Location+ to go along with plenty of whiff (31.7%) and chase (29.9%).

Wondering where more big arms rank? Here’s four more hard-throwers with Stuff+ >115, but Location+< 99 that holds back their profile at this point.

Joshua Whritenour, RHP, Florida: 125 Stuff+ / 99 Location+
Sam Cozart, RHP, Texas: 115S / 99L
Kyle Olivo, RHP, Iowa: 118S / 96L
Rhys Bowie, LHP, Wake Forest: 117S / 95L