Updated 2021 Overall Rankings
December 12, 2019
In an effort to gain an edge in the scouting of amateur prospects, the number of MLB teams committing resources to underclass high school players has quickly grown and evolved. Putting together more information, including advanced metrics, over a longer period of time is all geared towards maximizing the potential of hitting on each draft pick and out-scouting the competition. So, while the “draft year” for the 2021 class is still half a year away, and the draft itself 18 months away, there is a strong chance that most MLB clubs have already begun gathering data on potential draftees, and our rankings give a glimpse into the players that those teams are looking at.
In analyzing the numbers and results of the past eight drafts (2012-2019), the average breakdown of Day 1 draft picks (up to the third round) includes roughly 60 percent position players and 40 percent pitchers. Similarly, the top 10 of the updated 2021 Overall rankings reflects that same sentiment with six position players and four pitchers.
SS Luke Leto (Portage Central HS, MI), the top-ranked player in the class and a Louisiana State recruit, has held onto the top spot since this list’s inception. His model physique includes a 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame with lean, defined strength throughout. Gifted with an arm that has also run fastballs up to 91 mph on the mound, Leto’s left-handed stick and power potential combined with impressive athleticism (6.57 60-yard dash) make him a must-see prospect in the class. His ability to stick up the middle as a defender will be important to consider as the draft approaches, and he has shown promise behind the plate, as well.
Luke Leto (April 2019)
Baseball hotbeds, California and Florida are well-represented on the list, including 10 players in the top 30. SS Marcelo Mayer (Eastlake HS, CA), a Southern California recruit, and CF Tyree Reed (Vacaville HS), an Oregon State recruit, are left-handed hitters that have elevated their game on the national stage against elite competition and sit prominently in the top 10. Each of their wiry-athletic frames are highly projectable, and their ability to slow the game down both offensively, and at premium positions defensively, will likely make them priorities for scouts moving forward.
Tyree Reed (August 2019)
A pair of power-armed teammates from the Sunshine State, RHP Andy Painter (Calvary Christian HS, FL), a Florida recruit, and RHP Irving Carter (Calvary Christian HS, FL), a Miami recruit, are equipped with the arsenal, polish, and frames to jump up draft boards down the line. Though each possesses the 90-plus arm strength to blow hitters away, their pitchability is even more impressive, and will likely allow for speedy progressions in the future.
Andy Painter (Spring 2019)
One of the biggest risers in the updated rankings is OF Matthew Prevesk (Apopka HS, FL), a Florida recruit, whose combination of speed (6.85 60) and power (95 mph exit velocity off tee) should make him an enticing prospect. His whippy barrel from the left side is driven by quick hands and loose wrists, and he demonstrates an ability to lift the ball with minimal effort.
Matthew Prevesk (Summer 2019)
Joining Prevesk as some of the biggest risers, jumping into the top 100, are three fellow Floridians—RHP Owen Flynn (Windermere HS, FL), an elastic, whippy-armed North Carolina recruit; OF Michael Robertson (Venice HS, FL), a twitchy speedster with gap-to-gap strength from the left side, and Florida recruit; and SS Jordan McCants (Pensacola Catholic HS, FL), a Mississippi State recruit, who brings an exciting bounce to the game with a persistent motor. Each showcases high upside, and may ultimately climb even higher in the end.
Michael Robertson (May 2019)
Continuing through the top 400, there are a plethora of prospects on the rise who could continue their upward trend in the spring and summer. OF Q Phillips (Brookfield East HS, WI), a Michigan recruit, and RHP Justine Rodriguez (George Washington HS, NY), a Florida International recruit, each moved up in this rendition. Phillips’ balanced approach from the left side, and top-of-the-order potential as a center fielder is highly intriguing, and Rodriguez’s loose, whippy right arm is now running fastballs up to 93 mph with more on the way as his thin frame fills out.
Q Phillips (Fall 2019)
Justine Rodriguez (Summer 2019)
There is still much time to dissect and uncover prospects in the 2021 class, but as it continues to come into better focus, one thing is clear: the talent level is high from coast-to-coast, and PBR’s boots-on-the-ground staff will be there every step of the way as it continues to evolve.
2021 Overall Rankings