Carter
Holton

Vandy’s game three starter registered ten strikeouts during his six inning (105 pitches) outing and did not walk a batter. He scattered six hits, while allowing three runs. For the season the left-hander is 5-0 with a 3.27 ERA and has struck out 67 in just 44 innings against 13 walks. Holton features a fastball up to 96 with an average of 93.5 mph this season, but it’s his big bender of a curve ball that attracts much of my attention. At 79-80 mph it’s deep with 14” of vertical break while spinning in the upper 2300 rpm range. He can also manipulate it into another bender, this one with more power in the 83-85 mph range and similar spin rates. His slider draws more chase and swing/miss with a 47% whiff%, but he throws it less often for a strike at 60% (53rd percentile). Holton’s fourth pitch is also very effective in a low-80s changeup with 15-16” of horizontal action to his armside. He throws it less than 9% of the time, but percentage-wise, it draws the most swing/miss of any of his pitches (56%, 98th percentile). I also witnessed a couple of cutters at 86-87 mph to Tommy White in the third inning, but that was the extent of this offering that I noticed during this look. His entire arsenal is all delivered from a consistent high three-quarter release point, adding to his effectiveness. Holton will lose some value in the draft as clubs believe he is a reliever and at 5-foot-11, 195 pounds he then becomes a bit of an outlier. An obvious future big leaguer for me, I have been fortunate to see Holton at his best multiple times during his Vandy career. Therefore, I value him a little higher than the industry consensus at this point. Currently, not including two-way talent Jac Caglianone, Carter is my 5th ranked college lefthanded pitcher behind Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Jonathan Santucci (Duke), Josh Hartle (Wake Forest), and Ryan Prager (Texas A&M) and he is likely to be considered late during Day One.

USA CNT: The Vandy lefty experienced a bit of a sophomore slump this past spring after a sensational freshman season in 2022, posting an 8-4 won/loss record with 97 strikeouts in 80 innings and a 3.14 ERA. Strong-bodied at 5-foot-11, 200 pounds, Holton has a super quick arm and a fastball that ranged 94-97 mph. His slider also shows plus with late action at 82-85. With little projection remaining, Holton “is what he is”, and that is pretty darn good. He currently projects to go in the second half of the first round and has the stuff to rise quickly to the Major Leagues. Made just one appearance for the CNT, pitching 1.2 innings, allowing one run on two hits.

92-94 mph fastball, peaked at 95. Sharp low-80s slider with two-plane break and a near average changeup. He labored every inning after the first, when he retired the side in order on three straight groundouts. Holton allowed two runs on eight hits and a walk with seven strikeouts in five innings.

A 5-foot-11, 205-pound tree trunk of an athlete, he’s actually very limber and pitches with a repeatable delivery. His fastball topped at 96, sitting 92-94. He also attacked with an 83-84 mph slider and a nasty at times 78 mph curveball. The left-hander struggled occasionally with his control, but overall had a solid outing, allowing two runs on four hits in 3.2 innings.

USA CNT: A blue-chip recruit who lived up to his billing, Holton went 8-4, 3.14 with 97 strikeouts against 29 walks in 80.1 innings to earn Freshman All-America honors this spring. He worked 2.1 scoreless innings in North Carolina during Team USA training camp, then shined in Haarlem, allowing just one hit in 5.1 scoreless innings over two appearances, striking out six and walking two. Built like a tank at 5-foot-11, 195 pounds, Holton may not be tall, but he's very strong, with thick, powerful legs and a tree trunk core. He works around the corner from a slightly above three-quarters arm slot, giving him excellent deception that makes his fastball explode on hitters. It's also plenty firm, sitting at 93-95 mph during his 2.1-inning stint in Durham, with some sink and arm-side run. Holton has very good feel to spin the breaking ball, and he can manipulate the shape and power on it, sometimes throwing it with more depth and downer action at 75-77, sometimes throwing it harder with more lateral tilt at 78-81, but the two versions blend together and do not appear to be separate pitches. His best ones are thrown with conviction at 80-81 and can eat up lefthanded hitters. Call it a slider, a curveball or a slurve — it's currently an average pitch that flashes above-average or even plus on occasion. Holton also showed a very good changeup that he throws with good arm speed at 85-86 mph, a higher-spin change in the 2000s-2100s with some bottom to it. The changeup also flashed plus with serious tumble at its best, giving him three legitimate swing-and-miss weapons.

NPI: Vanderbilt recruit. Average frame. 5-foot-11, 160 pounds. Always shows up in big moments. Hit two home runs in Team Elite’s first game. Hit a walkoff double in the playoffs and added a home run in the championship game. Exaggerated load from the left side with a big leg kick, long stride, deep hands and arm bar. Solid bat speed allows him to get the barrel through and square balls up consistently. Mostly pull approach, but flashes barrel control and the ability to go the other way. On the mound, shows smooth delivery with good tempo and rhythm. Fastball was 89-93. Slider has 3/4 break at 76-79 and he mixes in a low-80s splitter. Struck out four and allowed two hits in two innings of work.

Vanderbilt commit. Ranked the #3 2021 in the state. 5-foot-11, 175 pounds. Showed a strong two-pitch mix on the mound. Slightly closed landing. Arm works extremely quick and keeps speed consistent on breaking ball. SL showed large shape with tight spin. Executes well with the pitch in all counts. â…™ bend at 72-76. FB sat 88-91 in first couple of innings. Has natural run and works both sides of the plate. Does an impressive job throwing to the inside part of the plate. Works extremely fast in between pitches. Also showed two-way potential. Hit a HR to RF and took 91 the other-way for a single on lefty-lefty matchup. Low hands to start and keeps them low during load.

Vanderbilt commit. Ranked the #3 2021 in the state. 5-foot-11, 175 pounds. Showed a strong two-pitch mix on the mound. Slightly closed landing. Arm works extremely quick and keeps speed consistent on breaking ball. SL showed large shape with tight spin. Executes well with the pitch in all counts. â…™ bend at 72-76. FB sat 88-91 in first couple of innings. Has natural run and works both sides of the plate. Does an impressive job throwing to the inside part of the plate. Works extremely fast in between pitches. Also showed two-way potential. Hit a HR to RF and took 91 the other-way for a single on lefty-lefty matchup. Low hands to start and keeps them low during load.

Vanderbilt recruit, currently ranked No. 57 nationally, No. 6 in Georgia’s 2021 class. Thin 5-foot-11, 160-pound left-handed pitcher with an extremely fast arm at foot strike. Carved for Team Elite Black in his start, pounding the strike zone with his 88-90 fastball. Pitched at 87-89 in the third inning. Effectively mixed three pitches. Slider sat 75-76 while his straight change was 80-81. Punched out four straight to start the game.

Good looking left handed arm with some moxie. Excellent combination of now stuff, deception and pitch-ability. What he may lack in upside he doubles down on security.  Holton just looks like he will get hitters out.