Judson
Fabian

2022 MLB Draft: Heading into Week 12 of the college season, Fabian had reduced his strikeout rate to 18% while continuing to hit for power. With that combo he was rising up draft boards. This ascent undoubtedly made his decision to pass on signing after his selection at No. 40 overall by the Red Sox last summer a good one. However, during Week 12, Fabian faltered, going 1-for-13 at the plate with eight strikeouts. This raised his season strikeout rate back over 20% and his struggles continued from there. He finished the season with a career high 24 home runs, but his average dipped to finish at .239 with a 22.2% K rate. His power originates from good bat speed and natural loft, allowing him to drive the ball to all fields. The grooved swing also leads to holes and swing/miss as Fabian can be exposed by quality off speed stuff, and also by well placed heaters at the letters. Defensively, he has very good instincts, gets good reads off the bat and has good closing speed to go with an above-average arm. He easily projects to remain in center field in pro ball. Turning 22 years old in late September, Fabian will still be a "normal" draft age this July due to his early enrollment at Florida as a high school senior. He has the upside to be a middle of the diamond power bat at the Major League level if it all comes together, but with that comes great risk that he will make enough contact at the plate.

Heading into this series, Fabian had reduced his K rate to right around 18% this spring while continuing to hit for power and was rising up draft boards. This ascent undoubtedly made his decision to pass on signing after his selection at No. 40 overall by the Red Sox last summer a good one. After banging three home runs (with eight RBI) on Tuesday against South Florida, Fabian faltered during this series, going 1-for-13 at the plate with eight strikeouts, including five whiffs during Sunday's series finale. This raised his season strikeout rate back over the 20% red flag. But, with that swing/miss has come plus power production, including 19 home runs this season and a career-best .398 ISO. His power originates from good bat speed and natural loft, allowing him to drive the ball with authority to all fields. The grooved swing also leads to holes and swings/miss, and he can be exposed by quality off speed stuff, and also by well placed heaters in and up at the letters. Defensively, he has very good instincts, gets good reads off the bat and has good closing speed to go with an above-average arm. He easily projects to remain in center field in pro ball. Turning 22 years old in late September, Fabian will still be a "normal" draft age this July due to his early enrollment at Florida as a high school senior. He has the upside to be a middle of the diamond power bat at the Major League level if it all comes together.

2021 MLB Draft: Fabian enrolled early at Florida in January 2019 and handled his own during what should have been his senior year of high school. He was off to a hot start in 2020 before the shutdown and garnered some buzz as a top 10 pick. That was quelled by a .249 average and high strikeout rate this spring, but he did hit 20 home runs and is a plus defender in center field. His power comes from being short to the ball with very good bat speed and natural loft, allowing him to lift and drive the ball with authority to all fields. That also leads to holes and swings and misses, and he can be exposed by quality offspeed stuff. Defensively, he gets good reads off the bat and has good closing speed to go with an above-average arm.

Fabian skipped his senior season of high school, enrolled early at Florida in January of 2019 and then started 54 games in center field for the Gators as a freshman, batting .232 with seven home runs and 26 RBI. He then emerged as a true impact talent as an 18 year old on the Cape in 2019, slashing .290/.350/.500 with six home runs in 35 games of action. Coming into the 2021 spring, Fabian was making a case to go in the top 10 overall, but with a .234 batting average and 48 strikeouts in 144 plate appearances (33.3% strikeout rate) this season his chances have drastically slimmed. He’s short to the ball with very good bat speed and natural loft, allowing him to lift and drive the ball with authority to all fields. However, what gives him a swing capable of producing big power numbers, also gives him holes and swing/miss. He can be exposed by quality off-speed offerings, especially down/away in the zone, as well as elevated fastballs that sail over his bat path. Some of those strikeouts can be justified by his power production (11 home runs with a .532 SLG), but his historically high strikeout rate is deeply concerning. His other tools and skills are all first round quality. He shows very good reads off the bat and an ability to close quickly in center field. The outfield gaps can be tricky at Tennessee and he did drop a deep fly ball during the series opening game, but overall Fabian is a plus defender. His arm is better than average and he throws with tailing accuracy. He’s also an above average runner (4.25 H-1B), yet hasn’t played into stolen bases (1-for-2). Fabian plays a premium position, plays it at a high level and he’s very likely to stay there in pro ball. With all that said there are not many comparables to what Fabian projects to be in the batter’s box as a Big Leaguer; 30 hit ability (.225-.235 batting average) and 60 power production (20-25 home runs). Ex-Major Leaguer Dave Kingman comes to mind or the present day Jackie Bradley Jr. is a good, but not a great comp since his career college K rate was just 13.5% before it exploded at the ML level. For me as a draft prospect Fabian is similar to Kyler Murray (25% K rate with .556 SLG) who would have been a much better second pick for a club than a first. Thanks to the Heisman Trophy and the NFL we will likely never know what Murray would have become as a Major Leaguer, but we do know the hole it left for the 2018 A’s draft class as their first-rounder.

After a solid freshman season in Gainesville as an early graduated high school senior, Fabian emerged as a true impact talent last summer on the Cape in 2019, slashing .290/.350/.500 with six home runs (tied for 8th in the league) in 35 games of action. Fabian’s offensive performance has been nothing short of eye-popping and as one of the youngest draft eligible talents in the college ranks for 2021, he’s rapidly making a case to go in the top half of the first round. There’s lots of bat speed and excellent natural loft in Fabian’s swing, allowing him to lift and drive to ball with authority on the regular, including to the opposite field gap. He can be exposed some by quality off-speed offerings and can struggle hitting behind in the count, expanding the zone and leading to a fair amount of swing and miss at present. His feel for the barrel, however, and solid feel for the strike zone should help him rein in the strikeout numbers some and he does profile as a power over hit prospect at this point. Even if the strikeouts remain a fixture to some extent, there’s more than enough damage and on-base potential to project a future impact bat. He has shown very good reads off the bat in center field and an ability to close quickly and finish once locked in.  If he can maintain enough mobility to stick in center field long term, look out.

Fabian has emerged as a true impact talent this summer on the Cape, slashing .290/.350/.500 with six home runs (tied for 8th in the league) in his 35 games of action. He won’t turn 19 until the end of September. Fabian’s offensive performance has been nothing short of eye-popping and as one of the youngest draft eligible talents at the college ranks for 2021, he’s rapidly making a case for early placement on the Day 1 short list. There’s lots of bat speed and excellent natural loft in Fabian’s swing, allowing him to lift and drive to ball with authority on the regular, including to the opposite field gap. He has shown very good reads off the bat in center field and an ability to close quickly and finish once locked in. He can be exposed some by quality off-speed offerings and can struggle hitting behind in the count, expanding the zone and leading to a fair amount of swing and miss at present. His feel for the barrel, however, and solid feel for the strike zone should help him rein in the strikeout numbers some. Even if the strikeouts remain a fixture to some extent, there’s more than enough damage and on-base potential to project a future impact bat. If he can maintain enough mobility to stick in center field long term, look out. (Faleris)

Florida recruit. Well known and currently ranked No. 4 in Florida in the 2019 class and for good reason. The right handed hitter has a short, swing with natural loft and plus bat to ball skill. All he did all weekend was find the barrel and show why he is one of the top players in the nation in 2019.

Florida commit, the 6-foot 170-pounder continued to impress. He has a short easy stroke and really has a feel for the barrel. Takes smart at-bats and works the count. He has long easy strides and projects to be an above average runner with a plus bat. He also showed the ability to really track down the ball well. Has a chance to be a high end guy as he continues to grow.

Florida recruit. Currently ranked No. 11 in the Florida 2019 Class, No. 24 Overall. Stands at 6-foot, 175 pounds with a projectable, athletic build. Continues to show a confident, comfortable approach at the plate. Stays balanced in the box and keeps his weight on his back leg to adjust to off-speed pitches. Shows good hand eye coordination with quick hands and above average bat speed through the zone. Stays aggressive on the base paths, and shows good range while playing centerfield.

7/28/16- Committed to the University of Florida.

Currently ranked No. 12 in the Florida 2019 class, No. 31 overall, the 6-foot, 175-pounder has a projectable, athletic build with good instincts and natural actions. Calm and balanced in the box with loose hands and good hand eye. Quick bat with a confident approach at the plate. Good step for his load with timing and rhythm in his swing. Squares the ball up consistently and uses all of the field. Can drive the ball with authority. Smart player that stays aggressive on the base paths. Tracks the ball well in the outfield and makes accurate throws with carry. High follow as he continues to strengthen and mature.

Six-foot, 175-pound freshman who has a lean, athletic, and projectable frame with advanced actions all over the field. Loose, above average arm from the outfield and everything is online and accurate. At the plate he is upright, relaxed, and gets a good separation for his load. Nice swing plane and good bat speed. He has good leverage in his swing and the ball jumps off his bat.

6-foot, 175 pound outfielder with a loose lean athletic projectable body. Loose easy outfield actions with soft hands and fluid release. Slightly below average arm that will improve with age. Tracks ball well. Loose quick bat with good extension through the zone. Aggressive approach. Attacks ball. Patient hitter. Knows strike zone. Confidence in the box for such a young guy. Has some power now with much more to come. Good looking young player. 4.5 to 1B. Overall game will improve with physical maturity. Still very young.

6-foot, 155 pounds with a lean, loose, athletic and projectable body. From the outfield he shows a loose, quick arm with accurate, on line throws and good carry (85 mph). At the plate he is relaxed and has an advanced approach. He has an open and upright stance, gets a separation for his load, has a nice plane through the zone and gets great leverage in his swing. He uses his lower half well, the ball really jumps off his bat and he consistently drives the ball from gap to gap with authority.

5-foot-9, 145 pound outfielder/pitcher with a lean loose athletic projectable young body. Good outfield actions with a good release. Throws had some carry. Loose quick bat with a good path. Barrel stays in zone. Some length in swing but gets good extension. Good load and separation. Aggressive with the bat. Overall game will improve with physical maturity.

Loose easy working arm at a ¾ arm slot. Fastball had late tail action at 78-81 mph. Curveball had a tight ¾ rotation with occasional depth at 66-67 mph. Good feel for changeup with the same late fastball life at 68-70 mph. Threw all 3 pitches for strikes. Good athlete. Is also a very good position player. Good young arm that will begin attracting attention soon.

5-foot-9, 145 pound lefty with a lean loose athletic projectable young body. Loose easy working arm with a ¾ to low ¾ arm slot. Takes ball out slightly past hip with a slight wrist wrap in back. Lands in line. Fast ball has run and sink at 74-77 mph. Curve ball is a big loopy ¾ breaker with good rotation. Good feel for the change up at 71-72 mph with the same fast ball action. A lot of upside for this young projectable lefty.

6/27/15 - 5-foot-10 160 pounds with a lean, athletic, and projectable body. Long, loose, and over the top arm action with good carry on his throws. Plus arm for his age. Upright stance and gets a separation for his load. Nice swing plane and good bat speed. 7.2 runner.

Incoming freshman who stands at 5-foot-9 145 pounds with a lean, athletic, and projectable frame. Switch hitter who has a loose, flat swing and good hitter’s hands. Has some rhythm, gets a good separation for his load, and uses his lower half well. Hits consistent hard line drives to all fields with plus bat speed for his age. In the outfield he takes very good routes and comes through ball well. Loose, high ¾ arm with above average to plus arm strength for his age. Fabian threw 81 mph from the outfield and produced an 81 mph exit bat velocity. He also throws off the mound with three solid pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 70’s and gets up to 77 mph, his curveball is 61-62 mph, and is changeup